Upgrading and Murphy’s Law..

Murphy's Law 1

According to Webster: “Mur·phy’s Law,” Any of certain humorous axioms stating that anything that can possibly go wrong, will go wrong.

History…

The perceived perversity of the universe has long been a subject of comment, and precursors to the modern version of Murphy’s law are not hard to find.

Recent significant research in this area has been conducted by members of the American Dialect Society. ADS member Stephen Goranson has found a version of the law, not yet generalized or bearing that name, in a report by Alfred Holt at an 1877 meeting of an engineering society.

“It is found that anything that can go wrong at sea generally does go wrong sooner or later,” ..so it is not to be wondered that owners prefer the safe to the scientific ….

 Murphy's Law 2a

Sufficient stress can hardly be laid on the advantages of simplicity. The human factor cannot be safely neglected in planning machinery. If attention is to be obtained, the engine must be such that the engineer will be disposed to attend to it.

 Math guy 1a 

Mathematician Augustus De Morgan on June 23, 1866 “Supplement to the Budget of Paradoxes,” The Athenaeum no. 2017 page 836 col. 2 [and later reprints: e.g. 1872, 1915, 1956, 2000] wrote: “The first experiment already illustrates a truth of the theory, well confirmed by practice, what-ever can happen will happen if we make trials enough.” In later publications “whatever can happen will happen” occasionally is termed “Murphy’s law,” which raises the possibility—if something went wrong—that “Murphy” is “De Morgan” misremembered (an option, among others, raised by Goranson on American Dialect Society list). 

American Dialect Society member Bill Mullins has found a slightly broader version of the aphorism in reference to stage magic. The British stage magician “Nevil Maskelyne” wrote in 1908:… 

 Nevelle Magic guy 1

(Nevil Maskelyne).

“It is an experience common to all men to find that, on any special occasion, such as the production of a magical effect for the first time in public, everything that can go wrong will go wrong. Whether we must attribute this to the malignity of matter or to the total depravity of inanimate things, whether the exciting cause is hurry, worry, or what not, the fact remains.”

The contemporary form of Murphy’s law goes back as far as 1952, as an epigraph to a mountaineering book by John Sack, who described it as an “ancient mountaineering adage”: …

 John Sack 1

 (John Sack).

“Anything that can possibly go wrong, does.”

 Fred 1a

 (Fred R. Shapiro)

Fred R. Shapiro, the editor of the Yale Book of Quotations, has shown that in 1952 the adage was called “Murphy’s law” in a book by Anne Roe, quoting an unnamed physicist:

he described [it] as “Murphy’s law or the fourth law of thermodynamics” (actually there were only three last I heard) which states: “If anything can go wrong, it will.”

 Ann Roe 1a

(Anne Roe). 

In May 1951, in Genetic Psychology Monographs volume 43, page 204, Anne Roe gives a transcript of an interview (part of a Thematic Apperception Test, asking impressions on a photograph) with Theoretical Physicist number 3: “…As for himself (Fred Shapiro) ..he realized that this was the inexorable working of the second law of the thermodynamics which stated Murphy’s law

‘If anything can go wrong it will’.”

Anne Roe’s papers are in the American Philosophical Society archives in Philadelphia; those records (as noted by Stephen Goranson on the American Dialect Society list 12/31/2008) identify the interviewed physicist as Howard

 Howard Bob 1a

(Howard Percy “Bob” Robertson).

Percy “Bob” Robertson (1903–1961). Robertson’s papers are at the Caltech archives; there, in a letter Robertson offers Roe an interview within the first three months of 1949 (as noted by Goranson on American Dialect Society list 5/9/2009).

The Robertson interview apparently predated the Muroc scenario said by Nick Spark (American Aviation Historical Society Journal 48 (2003) p. 169) to have occurred in or after June, 1949.

The name “Murphy’s law” was not immediately secure. A story by Lee Correy in the February 1955 issue of Astounding Science Fiction referred to “Reilly’s law,” which “states that in any scientific or engineering endeavor, anything that can go wrong will go wrong”.

G Stine 1a

(G. Harry Stine – aka Lee Correy). 

Struss 1a

 (Lewis Strauss).

Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Lewis Strauss was quoted in the Chicago Daily Tribune on February 12, 1955, saying “I hope it will be known as Strauss’ law. It could be stated about like this: If anything bad can happen, it probably will.”

 Murphy's Law 4a

(Arthur Bloch).

Arthur Bloch, in the first volume (1977) of his Murphy’s Law, and Other Reasons Why Things Go WRONG series, prints a letter that he received from George E. Nichols, a quality assurance manager with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Nichols recalled an event that occurred in 1949 at Edwards Air Force Base, Muroc, California that, according to him, is the origination of Murphy’s law, and first publicly recounted by USAF Col. John Paul Stapp. An excerpt from the letter reads: …

 Col faster ma on earth

(John Paul Stapp).

John Paul Stapp, M.D., Ph.D., Colonel, USAF (Ret.) (11 July 1910 Bahia, Brazil –13 November 1999 Alamogordo, USA) was a career U.S. Air Force officer, USAF fligh surgeon and pioneer in studying the effects of acceleration and deceleration forces on humans. He was a colleague and contemporary of Chuck Yeager, and became known as “the fastest man on earth”.(Source, Wikipedia).

The law’s namesake was “Capt. Ed Murphy,” a development engineer from Wright Field Aircraft Lab.

Frustration with a strap transducer which was malfunctioning due to an error in wiring the strain gage bridges caused him to remark – “If there is any way to do it wrong, he will” – referring to the technician who had wired the bridges at the Lab. I assigned Murphy’s law to the statement and the associated variations.

“The History of Murphy’s Law” …

According to the book “A History of Murphy’s Law” by author Nick T. Spark, …

 Sparks 1a

 (Nick T. Spark).

Nick T. Spark is an American documentary filmmaker and writer. Films he has written, directed or produced include Regulus: The First Nuclear Missile Submarines (2001) and the Emmy award winning The Legend of Pancho Barnes and the Happy Bottom Riding Club (2009)… 

Poucho Barnes 1

(Sidebar) …

As Nicholas Spark was born in 1965 and Pancho passed away in 1975, it is doubtful (at least in my opinion) that Nick Spark ever met Pancho personally, whereas having lived in Mojave, California from 1960 through mid-year 1966…

(Except for the (two years) I spent in the (U.S. Army) fulfilling my military obligation)…

..during which time my father was the manger of the Mojave airport while I was manager and operator the “fuel and flight line Services,” accordingly I knew both Pancho Barnes and her son Bill personally. Although Pancho no longer held a pilots license or flew, being a long time friend of my mother and father, she was a regular visitor to the airport.

Poucho Barnes 2a

(Pancho Barnes – Circa 1925 – highly retouched).

Continuing..

In addition to being a contributing editor to Wings and Airpower magazines, his articles have appeared in the Annals of Improbable Research, Naval History, the Journal of the American Aviation Historical Society, and Proceedings.

People he has interviewed include President Gerald Ford, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Secretary of State Colin Powell, and numerous test pilots including Charles “Chuck” Yeager. In 2007 Spark was interviewed on National Public Radio, concerning an article he wrote about the USS Panay incident.

Spark is probably most well known for the four-part article Why Everything You Know About Murphy’s Law Is Wrong, detailing the history of Murphy’s law.

This article, which Spark later adapted into a short book, explains the genesis of the popular adage which apparently originated at Edwards Air Force Base during the United States Air Force’s Project MX981 to research high g-force issues in 1947–1949 under the direction of “The Bravest Man in the Air Force”, physicist and medical doctor John Stapp.

Differing recollections years later by various participants make it impossible to pinpoint who first coined the saying Murphy’s law. The law’s name supposedly stems from an attempt to use new measurement devices developed by the eponymous Edward Murphy. The phrase was coined in adverse reaction to something Murphy said when his devices failed to perform and was eventually cast into its present form prior to a press conference some months later — the first ever (of many) given by Dr. John Stapp, a U.S. Air Force colonel and Flight Surgeon in the 1950s.

These conflicts (a long running interpersonal feud) were unreported until Spark researched the matter. His book expands upon and documents an original four part article published in 2003 (Annals of Improbable Research (AIR) on the controversy: Why Everything You Know About Murphy’s Law is Wrong.

From 1948 to 1949, Stapp headed research project MX981 at Muroc Army Air Field (later renamed Edwards Air Force Base) for the purpose of testing the human tolerance for g-forces during rapid deceleration.

 Rocket Sled 2

The tests used a rocket sled mounted on a railroad track with a series of hydraulic brakes at the end. Initial tests used a humanoid crash test dummy strapped to a seat on the sled, but subsequent tests were performed by Stapp, at that time an Air Force captain. During the tests, questions were raised about the accuracy of the instrumentation used to measure the g-forces Captain Stapp was experiencing.

Edward Murphy proposed using electronic strain gauges attached to the restraining clamps of Stapp’s harness to measure the force exerted on them by his rapid deceleration. Murphy was engaged in supporting similar research using high speed centrifuges to generate g-forces. Murphy’s assistant wired the harness, and a trial was run using a chimpanzee.

The sensors provided a zero reading; however, it became apparent that they had been installed incorrectly, with each sensor wired backwards. It was at this point that a disgusted Murphy made his pronouncement, despite being offered the time and chance to calibrate and test the sensor installation prior to the test proper, which he declined somewhat irritably, getting off on the wrong foot with the MX981 team.

In an interview conducted by Nick Spark, George Nichols, another engineer who was present, stated that Murphy blamed the failure on his assistant after the failed test, saying, “If that guy has any way of making a mistake, he will.” Nichols’ account is that “Murphy’s law” came about through conversation among the other members of the team; it was condensed to “If it can happen, it will happen,” and named for Murphy in mockery of what Nichols perceived as arrogance on Murphy’s part.

Others, including Edward Murphy’s surviving son Robert Murphy, deny Nichols’ account (which is supported by Hill, both interviewed by Spark), and claim that the phrase did originate with Edward Murphy. According to Robert Murphy’s account, his father’s statement was along the lines of “If there’s more than one way to do a job, and one of those ways will result in disaster, then he will do it that way.”

The phrase first received public attention during a press conference in which Stapp was asked how it was that nobody had been severely injured during the rocket sled tests. Stapp replied that it was because they always took Murphy’s law under consideration; he then summarized the law and said that in general, it meant that it was important to consider all the possibilities (possible things that could go wrong) before doing a test and act to counter them. Thus Stapp’s usage and Murphy’s alleged usage are very different in outlook and attitude. One is sour, the other an affirmation of the predictable being surmountable, usually by sufficient planning and redundancy. Hill and Nichols believe Murphy was unwilling to take the responsibility for the device’s initial failure (by itself a blip of no large significance) and is to be doubly damned for not allowing the MX981 team time to validate the sensor’s operability and for trying to blame an underling when doing so in the embarrassing aftermath.

The association with the 1948 incident is by no means secure. Despite extensive research, no trace of documentation of the saying as Murphy’s law has been found before 1951 (see above). The next citations are not found until 1955, when the May–June issue of Aviation Mechanics Bulletin included the line “Murphy’s law:

“If an aircraft part can be installed incorrectly, someone will install it that way,”

..and Lloyd Mallan’s book, Men, Rockets and Space Rats, referred to: “Colonel Stapp’s favorite takeoff on sober scientific laws—Murphy’s law, Stapp calls it—’Everything that can possibly go wrong will go wrong’.” The Mercury astronauts in 1962 attributed Murphy’s law to U.S. Navy training films.(Source, Wikipedia).

Editorial: …

Now then I ask you, ..wasn’t that a fun ride? ..with my “puter” presently restricted to one monitor, ..I can’t really get serious about (my purpose) ..to create, and/or, ..publish something, or, anything worthwhile, especially with graphics, ..with “only” one monitor, ..although short of a monumental nightmare, ..it is well beyond the realm of (realistically acceptable) to an old guy set as deeply in his ways as myself, ..so today I chose to treat you all to my rendition of a “Shaggy Dog Story.”

I hope you enjoyed today’s read? ..and I also hope that you’ll keep in mind…

Murphy's Law 3a

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Crusader Rabbit…

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